Nontraditional Providers Set to Capture 30% of U.S. Primary Care Market by 2030

Nontraditional providers, including retailers, payers, and advanced primary care (APC) providers, are expected to command 30% of the U.S. primary care market by 2030, according to a recent Bain & Company study. The report highlights significant trends shaping the primary care landscape, such as the growing adoption of value-based care models and investments by new market entrants. While payer-owned primary care is predicted

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to hold 20% of the market, APC providers are scaling rapidly, particularly in population-specific care, addressing chronic and complex patient needs with improved outcomes and cost savings. Retailers, however, face challenges in establishing themselves as comprehensive primary care providers, with Bain’s findings indicating that less than one-third of consumers view them as viable options for complex care needs.

The shift toward value-based care models is also impacting traditional primary care providers, who are increasingly seeking partnerships with enablers to adapt to changing payment structures. Bain's study emphasizes the role of venture capital and private equity in fueling this transformation, with value-based care enablers projected to account for 10% of primary care lives by 2030. Bain anticipates that competitive dynamics, coupled with regulatory pressures, will continue to redefine the U.S. primary care market, emphasizing the importance of innovation and adaptability across all provider categories.

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