and an aging population as key contributors to the labor supply decline, particularly in primary care roles like physicians and nurses. The shortage is expected to exacerbate existing disparities in healthcare access, with California alone facing a shortfall of 2,500 primary care physicians, significantly impacting specialized fields such as pediatrics and family medicine.

Mercer, a business of Marsh McLennan, highlights the need for healthcare systems and governments to work together to address the shortages. Strategic plans that focus on talent attraction, compensation, and innovative work redesign will be essential. Although registered nurses and home health aides are expected to see surpluses in certain regions, significant deficits are forecast for nursing assistants, with a shortfall of over 73,000 projected. This could increase burnout rates among the remaining healthcare staff. Mercer emphasizes that without immediate action, healthcare access and equity, particularly in rural and underserved areas, may be severely compromised.

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